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ACCF/NAM Climate Study Is Focus of House Blue Dog Energy Task Force Briefing

ACCF Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Margo Thorning and Governor John Engler, President and CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers, briefed members of the House Democratic Blue Dog Energy Task Force on the findings of the joint ACCF/NAM study assessing the potential national and state economic impacts resulting from "America's Climate Security Act of 2007" (S. 2191), the Lieberman-Warner bill. (For an overview of the ACCF/NAM study and the impact of S. 2191 on the U.S. and all 50 states.

At the briefing, held on June 12, members of the Blue Dog Energy Task Force sought to understand the potential economic costs of climate policy legislation such as the Lieberman-Warner bill to the country as a whole and to their individual states. Task Force members were also interested in an assessment of the environmental benefits if the U.S. institutes climate change policies such as the Lieberman-Warner bill. The fiscally conservative, 49-member Democratic Blue Dog Coalition was formed in 1995 with the goal of representing the center of the House of Representatives and appealing to the mainstream values of the American public. The Blue Dogs are dedicated to a core set of beliefs that transcend partisan politics, including a deep commitment to the financial stability and national security of the United States.

Conducted by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) using assumptions provided by ACCF and NAM, the study examines the implications of S. 2191 with respect to Gross Domestic Product and Gross State Product, future energy costs, economic growth, employment, production, household income, the impact on low-income earners, and other measurements. The study includes a comprehensive national economic assessment as well as separate and specific overviews of the impacts the legislation could have on all 50 U.S. states.

Dr. Thorning and Governor Engler told Task Force members that the conclusions of the reports indicate that the legislation, if passed into law, would have a profound economic impact on U.S. businesses, consumers and governments nationally and all 50 states. A sampling of the national findings includes:

• GDP losses of $151 billion to $210 billion in 2020 and $631 billion to $669 billion per year in 2030.
• Employment losses of 1.2 million to 1.8 million jobs in 2020 and 3 million to 4 million jobs in 2030.
• Household income losses of $739 to $2,927 per year in 2020 and $4,022 to $6,752 per year in 2030.
• Electricity price increases of 28 percent to 33 percent by 2020 and 101 percent to 129 percent by 2030.
• Gasoline price increases (per gallon) of 20 percent to 69 percent by 2020 and 77 percent to 145 percent by 2030.

"Add to these findings that rapidly developing nations such as China and India have signaled that they have no inclination to adopt similar climate change policies in order to reduce their emissions and the economic implications are even more alarming. Providing greater environmental stewardship is a shared commitment we must all embrace," Dr. Thorning said. "At a time when the nation is in the midst of an economic slowdown and teetering on the brink of a recession, debating passage of a measure that would further slow the U.S. economy in return for indeterminate global benefits must be carefully evaluated."