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The Savings and Investment Provisions
in the GOP "Contract With America"

American Council for Capital Formation
January 1995

Introduction

ACCF President Mark Bloomfield, accompanied by ACCF Chief Economist Dr. Margo Thorning, testified on January 24, 1995, as invited lead witnesses at a House Ways and Means Committee hearing that examined the saving and investment proposals in the GOP "Contract With America": the Neutral Cost Recovery System, capital gains tax reductions, and the American Dream Savings Account. The executive summary and full text of the ACCF's testimony are presented here.

Executive Summary

1. Overview.
We commend the emphasis the GOP "Contract With America" has placed on the need to increase saving and investment. The saving and investment provisions of the Contract will, if enacted, go a long way toward reducing the burden on capital formation imposed by the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA). We also applaud Chairman Archer and members of this Committee for their commitment-which we share-to enacting the Republican Contract in such manner as to be revenue neutral in the aggregate, thus not increasing the federal deficit.

2. Trends in U.S. Capital Formation. Saving and investment spending in the United States in recent years compares unfavorably with that of other nations and with our own past experience. From 1973 to 1991, gross nonresidential investment as a percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was lower for the United States than for any of our major competitors. Over that period, the growth rate of the stock of U.S. business capital declined significantly.

3. Link Between Investment and Growth. Allocating increases in output to three sources-growth in the capital stock, labor supply and multifactor productivity-Harvard Professor Dale Jorgenson found that increases in the capital stock contribute most to increases in output. Growth in labor input is the next most important source, and multifactor productivity growth plays a subordinate role, Professor Jorgenson concluded.

4. Impact of TRA. Although TRA substantially reduced corporate and individual tax rates, the Act's capital cost recovery provisions raised effective tax rates and capital costs for productive and pollution control assets. Capital costs increased because of the loss of the investment tax credit, lengthening of depreciable lives for many assets, creation of a comprehensive corporate alternative minimum tax (AMT), and increases in capital gains taxes.

5. Capital Formation Provisions. The savings and investment provisions of the GOP Contract are an important first step toward reducing the bias against capital formation in the tax code:

  • Neutral Cost Recovery System. NCRS increases depreciation deductions to allow the equivalent of expensing for property with recovery class of ten years or less and allows indexing for inflation for longer-lived property. While true expensing for assets would be preferable, enactment of NCRS would represent a positive move toward this goal.

  • Capital Gains Tax Reductions. The Contract's comprehensive capital gains proposal satisfies three criteria: (1) It makes economic sense by lowering the high cost of capital, reducing the bias against high-risk capital, and ameliorating the taxation of inflationary gains; (2) It is fair to all income groups and sectors of the U.S. economy; and (3) It would not reduce total tax revenues and might, in fact, be a revenue raiser because of "unlocking" and important macroeconomic consequences.

  • American Dream Savings Account. This proposal to expand individual retirement accounts (IRAs) would be an important tool to increase the low U.S. saving rate. IRA reform enjoys strong bipartisan support in Congress, and President Clinton has proposed expanding the tax-deductible IRA. Noted economic scholars have found that such targeted retirement saving programs stimulate new saving.

6. Conclusion. The hard fact is we can no longer afford the luxury of government economic policies that reward consumption, discourage saving and investment, overregulate American business, and penalize economic growth. Enactment of the GOP Contract's tax reform provisions would help move the United States toward a tax system which is more neutral toward saving and investment and would pave the way for a more fundamental tax restructuring.

ACCF Statement

Introduction


My name is Mark A. Bloomfield. I am president of the American Council for Capital Formation (ACCF). I am accompanied by Dr. Margo Thorning, our chief economist. The ACCF represents a broad cross section of the American business community, including the manufacturing and investment sectors, Fortune 500 companies and smaller firms, individuals, and associations. Our board of directors includes cabinet members of prior Republican and Democratic administrations, former members of Congress, prominent business leaders, and public finance experts. We appreciate this opportunity to present testimony on the impact of the tax provisions in the Republican "Contract With America."

To encourage a constructive debate on the Contract's saving and investment proposals, our affiliated public policy think tank, the ACCF Center for Policy Research, has prepared three special reports for today's hearing: "Questions and Answers on Capital Gains," "Questions and Answers on IRAs," and "The Impact of the Alternative Minimum Tax on Investment and Economic Growth."

We commend the emphasis the GOP Contract places on the need to increase saving and investment. The saving and investment proposals in the GOP contract-the Neutral Cost Recovery System (NCRS), capital gains tax reductions, and expansion of Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs)-will, if enacted, go a long way toward addressing the burdens on capital formation imposed by the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA). Almost ten years after the enactment of the TRA, it is clear that U.S. tax policies toward saving and investment must be revised if we are to increase real wages for U.S. workers and retain our leading role in world affairs. We also applaud Chairman Archer and members of this committee for their commitment-which we share-to enacting the Republican Contract in such manner as to be revenue neutral in the aggregate, thus not increasing the federal deficit.

Trends in U.S. Capital Formation

Investment spending in the United States in recent years compares unfavorably with that of other nations as well as with our own past experience. From 1973 to 1991, gross nonresidential investment as a percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was lower for the United States than for any of our major competitors (see Table 1). The U.S. saving rate averaged 4.8 percent over the 1973-1991 period, compared to 19.1 percent in Japan and 10.7 percent in West Germany. Even more disturbing is the fact that net annual business investment in this country has in recent years fallen to only half the level of the 1960s and 1970s. Net private domestic investment averaged 7.4 percent of GDP from 1960 to 1980; since 1991 it has averaged only 3.0 percent (see Table 2).

Reflecting the reduced share of GDP being invested each year, the U.S. capital stock has also grown more slowly. In the three decades prior to 1980, the total capital stock grew at 4.0 percent per year; in the 1980s and 1990s, the rate fell to 2.7 and 1.4 percent respectively (see Table 3). The stock of equipment, which many experts regard as critical for strong productivity growth, has increased only about half as fast since 1980 as in previous decades. Industrial equipment stocks, which grew at an average rate of 4.3 percent over the 1950-1979 period, increased by just 1.2 percent annually in the 1980s and 0.1 percent since 1990.

Link Between Investment, Productivity Increases, and Economic Growth

The importance of investment in plant and equipment for economic growth is emphasized in a new book by Harvard Professor Dale Jorgenson.1 Professor Jorgenson's book, Productivity: Postwar U.S. Economic Growth, analyzed economic growth between cyclical peaks in the business cycle over the 1948-1979 period. Allocating increases in output to three sources—growth in the capital stock labor, supply, and multifactor productivity—Professor Jorgenson found that increases in the capital stock contribute most to increases in output (see Figure 1).2

In 1979, the output of the civilian economy stood at almost three times the level of output in 1948. Capital and labor inputs together contributed 2.6 percent per year to the output growth rate of 3.4 percent from 1948 to 1979; capital's share was 1.5 percent compared to 1.1 percent for labor. Thus, these two inputs accounted for more than three-fourths of output growth, Professor Jorgenson stated. By contrast, multifactor productivity increases (efficiency gains) during this period contributed 0.8 percent per year, or only 24 percent of output growth. Growth in capital input is the most important source of growth in output, growth in labor input is the next most important source, and multifactor productivity growth plays a subordinate role, Professor Jorgenson concluded.

Studies by Harvard Professors Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, now on leave at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, concluded that investment in equipment is perhaps the single most important factor in economic growth and development.3 Their research provided strong evidence that for a broad cross section of nations, every 1 percent of GDP invested in equipment is associated with an increase in the GDP growth rate itself of one-third of one percent-a very substantial social rate of return.

Investment's key role in advancing technological progress and productivity growth is also stressed in recent research by New York University Professor Edward N. Wolff.4 He argued that U.S. labor productivity growth rates are depressed by the recent slower growth in the capital-to-labor ratio-from a peak of 2.0 percent per year in the 1950s to 1.2 percent per year in the 1972-1992 period. He emphasized that the effects of the decline in U.S. capital-labor growth are perhaps even more pernicious than they appear at first glance. First, an increasing capital-labor ratio will increase labor productivity through capital deepening. Second, there appears to be an important and significant interaction effect between capital investment and technological advance.

Thus, a slowdown in capital formation may doubly hurt labor productivity growth-directly by slowing down the rate of capital deepening, and indirectly by slowing down the rate of technological advance. His research also shows that U.S. labor productivity growth lags behind our competitors; OECD countries outstripped the United States during much of the 1950-1990 period. He noted that countries such as Japan and Germany, which experienced strong productivity growth in the 1970s and 1980s, showed significant gains in their capital-to-labor ratios. Our competitors' gains in capital-to-labor ratios are a direct result of their higher levels of investment.

Implications of Lagging Investment and Slow Growth in Labor Productivity for
Current and Future Living Standards


Real family income in the United States has been nearly stagnant since the mid-1970s and in recent years has actually fallen. For example, real median household income was $39,869 in 1989; income has declined in each subsequent year, and in 1993 stood at $36,959. These trends have not only made it harder to maintain living standards but have also jeopardized our future economic health and our ability to remain the principal leader in international affairs. In addition, looming in the future is the need to finance the retirement of the baby boom generation. Research by Stanford Professor B. Douglas Bernheim, commissioned by the ACCF Center for Policy Research, our public policy think tank, shows that current saving by members of the baby boom generation is seriously inadequate.5 The typical baby boom household saves at only one-third the rate required to finance a retirement standard of living comparable to that enjoyed before retirement.

Tax Policy and Capital Costs

The user cost of capital is the pretax return on a new investment that is required to cover the purchase price of the asset, the market rate of interest, inflation, risk, economic depreciation, and taxes. This capital cost concept is often called the "hurdle rate" because it measures the return an investment must yield before a firm will be willing to start a new capital project.

Economists are in broad agreement that capital costs are affected by tax policy. For example, Stanford Dean John B. Shoven estimated that about one-third of the cost of capital is due to taxes.6 In other words, hurdle rates are 50 percent higher than they otherwise would be due to the tax liability on the income produced by the investment. Thus, the higher the tax on new investment, the less the investment that will take place. Although TRA substantially reduced corporate and individual income tax rates, the legislation's capital cost recovery provisions raised effective tax rates and capital costs for productive and pollution-control assets. Capital costs increased because of the loss of the investment tax credit, lengthening of depreciable lives for many assets, creation of the corporate alternative minimum tax (AMT), and increases in the capital gains tax.

The corporate AMT has an especially pernicious effect on the cost of capital. TRA created a comprehensive AMT system separate from, but parallel to, the regular tax system. Under the AMT regime, taxable income is modified by an intricate series of "adjustments" to income, including depreciation. A high level of investment is a major reason firms become AMT taxpayers. Depreciation allowances for firms paying the AMT generally are much less favorable than for those for firms paying the regular corporate income tax (see Table 4). Today, a significant proportion of large U.S. companies pay the AMT rather than the regular income tax. Yet a high level of investment is exactly what is needed for increasing economic growth; thus, AMT reform should be given high priority. (For additional background, see The Impact of the Alternative Minimum Tax on Investment and Economic Growth, a special report prepared by the ACCF Center for Policy Research for this hearing.)

The impact of TRA on U.S. industry can be illustrated by the following example relating to the present value of the capital cost recovery allowance when a corporation purchases new equipment. For example, the present value of the deductions for investment in modern and competitive continuous casting equipment for steel production under the strongly pro-investment tax regime in effect from 1981 to 1985 was close to 100 percent, according to a study by Arthur Andersen & Co. prepared especially for today's testimony. In contrast, under current law the present value of the capital cost recovery allowance for that same investment today is only 81 percent for a corporation paying the regular income tax. And if a corporation is subject to the corporate AMT, as many major steel companies are, the present value is only 59 percent (see Table 4).

The Arthur Andersen study also shows that the United States lags behind many of our major competitors in capital cost recovery for equipment that is technologically innovative, is crucial to U.S. economic strength, or helps prevent pollution. Capital cost recovery provisions for pollution-control equipment are much less favorable now than prior to TRA's passage. For example, the present value of cost recovery allowances for wastewater treatment facilities used in pulp and paper production was approximately 100 percent prior to TRA. Under regular TRA income tax, the present value for wastewater treatment facilities dropped to 81 percent; for AMT payers, the figure became 63 percent. Scrubbers used in the production of electricity fared even worse. Prior to TRA, the present value was 90 percent. Today, the present value is only 55 percent; for AMT taxpayers the figure drops to 42 percent. As is true in the case of productive equipment, loss of the investment tax credit and lengthening of depreciable lives both raise effective tax rates.

According to estimates by Dr. Joel Prakken of Laurence H. Meyer & Associates, the user cost of capital for most types of productive equipment would now be about 15 percent lower had TRA not been enacted (see Figure 2).

The Republican Contract and U.S. Economic Growth

Reforming and restructuring the U.S. federal tax system to reduce the multiple taxation of saving and investment inherent in the income tax-and promoting investment and higher living standards-is high on policymakers' 1995 agenda. The saving and investment proposals in the "Contract With America" will, if enacted, go a long way toward addressing the burdens on saving and investment imposed by TRA.

Neutral Cost Recovery System (NCRS)

The Republican Contract's proposal to increase depreciation deductions to allow the theoretical equivalent of expensing (i.e., immediate write-off) for property with recovery classes of ten years or less and to index longer-lived property for inflation will be important steps forward in reducing the bias against saving and investment for firms paying the regular income tax.

Under NCRS, the present value of capital cost recovery allowances of, for example, assets used to produce continuous casting equipment for steel production, rises from 81 percent under current law to 95 percent, not far below the equivalent to expensing (see Table 4). Firms paying the AMT also fare much better under NCRS. For example, the present value of depreciation allowances rises to 93 percent for equipment used for producing continuous casting equipment, compared to 59 percent under current law.

However, short-lived equipment comes closer to the ideal of expensing under NCRS than do assets with recovery classes longer than ten years. For example, net present value for scrubbers used in electricity plants would rise from 55 percent under current law to only 69 percent under NCRS (see Table 4). Thus NCRS does not provide a "level playing field" among assets with short and long lives. Another possible drawback to NCRS is that cash flow for short-lived assets is reduced in the early years of an assets' life due to the switch from 200 percent declining balance method of depreciation to the 150 percent method. However, the fact that NCRS is voluntary and can be elected on an asset-by-asset basis should minimize this concern for companies that tend to give more weight to cash flow compared to net present values in evaluating investment projects.

The ACCF has long advocated expensing as the optimal way of leveling the playing field for all types of assets. While true expensing, which would allow in the first year a complete write-off for the purchase price of an asset, is preferable in many ways to NCRS, such an expansive change in tax policy may not be affordable at present.

In sum, NCRS is a positive move toward real expensing for investment and ameliorating much of the AMT's negative impact on new investment.

Capital Gains Tax Reductions

The GOP "Contract With America" contains three capital gains incentives. First, individual and corporate taxpayers could exclude 50 percent of their capital gains from taxable income. The new effective capital gains tax rates would be 7.5 percent, 14 percent, 15.5 percent, 18 percent, and 19.8 percent for individuals, depending on the tax bracket. Corporations would be subject to a top effective capital gains tax rate of 17.5 percent. Second, the basis (the original cost) of capital assets would be indexed for inflation occurring after 1994. Third, individual taxpayers could deduct losses on sales of principle residences.

Capital gains tax reform should satisfy three criteria. First, it should make economic sense by lowering the excessively high cost of U.S. capital, reducing the bias against high-risk capital, and ameliorating the taxation of inflationary gains. Second, it should be fair to all income groups and sectors of the U.S. economy: Main Street and Wall Street, middle-class investors and farmers, new entrepreneurs and retiring businessmen, and individual investors and businesses alike. Third, it should not reduce total tax revenues and, in fact, it might be a revenue-raiser because it would unlock existing capital gains and would have important macroeconomic consequences.

On all three counts, the capital gains proposal in the Republican Contract measures up and should be enacted. (This is further documented in Questions and Answers on Capital Gains, a special report prepared by the ACCF Center for Policy Research for this hearing.)

To those who favor a truly level playing field over time for individual and business decisions to save and invest, stimulate economic growth, and create new and better jobs, capital gains (and other forms of saving) should not be taxed at all. This view was held by top economists in the past and is held by many mainstream economists today.

This is primarily because the income tax hits saving more than once-first when income is earned and again when interest and dividends on the investment financed by saving are received, or when capital gains from the investment are realized. The playing field is tilted because the individual or company that saves and invests pays more taxes over time than if all income were consumed and no saving took place. Taxes on income that is saved raise the capital cost of new productive investment for both individuals and corporations, thus dampening such investment. As a result, future growth in output and living standards is impaired.

Low capital gains taxes not only treat savers more fairly but also help hold down capital costs. Public finance economists refer to the tax on capital gains as a tax on retained income, which funds a large part of business investment. The higher the capital gains tax, the more difficult it is for management to retain earnings (rather than pay out dividends) to fund real investment in productive projects. Research by Stanford Dean John Shoven, Ohio State Professor Patric Hendershott, and Dr. Allen Sinai, chief global economist at Lehman Brothers and a highly respected economic forecaster, indicates that a cut in the capital gains tax rate to a range of 15 to 20 percent would reduce the cost of capital by 4 to 8 percent.

Favorable tax treatment of capital gains is especially important in encouraging the "start-up" of new but risky enterprises, which provide significant dynamism and growth to the U.S. economy. Much of that start-up money comes from friends and relatives of the entrepreneur. Most of their return is likely to be in appreciated stock; thus, low capital gains taxes makes them more willing to risk their savings.

Dr. Sinai's research in the past has shown that when macroeconomic "feedback" effects as well as unlocking of unrealized capital gains are estimated, a substantial reduction in capital gains taxes results in new and better jobs, as well as increased capital formation, stronger economic growth, and federal tax revenues that are significantly larger than under current law.

Specifically, capital gains tax reductions would:

  • raise real and nominal gross national product,
  • increase capital spending and capital formation,
  • increase employment,
  • raise stock prices,
  • increase household net worth,
  • lower the cost of capital for business and increase business profits,
  • shift business financing from debt to equity,
  • draw a larger portion of household investment into equities,
  • shift the financing of business activity away from debt to equity, and
  • induce portfolio allocations by households toward equity.

Individual Retirement Accounts

Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) were developed in the 1970s to encourage individuals to save for retirement. The 1981 tax cut expanded IRAs so that any wage earner could contribute up to $2,000 annually to an IRA; a couple with two wage-earners could contribute $4,000. A couple with a nonworking spouse could contribute $2,250. Contributions were tax deductible and taxes on funds accumulating in an IRA were deferred until withdrawn. Individuals had to be 59 1/2 years of age to withdraw funds from IRA accounts without penalty.

TRA curtailed IRAs so that contributions are not fully deductible except for workers without employer pensions, families with annual incomes under $40,000, and individuals with annual incomes under $25,000. These income limits are not indexed.

The Republican "Contract With America" offers a new "American Dream Savings Account" (ADS) which allows a nondeductible annual contributions of up to $4,000 for a married couple ($2,000 for an individual) and provides indexation for inflation. If the ADS were held for five years, the taxpayer could withdraw funds without penalty for retirement, first-time home purchases, and college or medical expenses.

IRA reform enjoys bipartisan support. For example, President Clinton has also proposed such reform, expanding tax-deductible IRAs as part of his "Middle-Class Bill of Rights" and permitting the use of the money before retirement to pay for the purchase of a first home, education, catastrophic health costs, or the care of an elderly parent. The administration proposal raises the current tax-deductible IRA income limit from $40,000 (phasing out at $50,000) to $80,000 (phasing out at $100,000). The administration proposal also allows individuals the option of the "back-loaded IRA" in which after-tax saving is put into an IRA but the proceeds are exempt from tax when withdrawn.

Prominent public finance economists and scholars such as former Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Martin Feldstein, Treasury Undersecretary Lawrence H. Summers, and Professors David A. Wise of Harvard University, James M. Poterba of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Steven F. Venti of Dartmouth College, Jonathan Skinner of the University of Virginia, and Richard A. Thaler of Cornell University have concluded that IRAs-especially tax-deductible IRAs-do in fact result in new saving.

Nearly a dozen scholarly studies, using a variety of data sources and employing several different statistical approaches, have examined whether targeted saving vehicles such as IRAs and 401(k)s affect saving. For example, Professor Venti's recent testimony before a Senate Finance Subcommittee examined saving data from a Survey of Income and Program Participation for three different age groups (families reaching age 60 to 64 in 1984, 1987, and 1991). Professor Venti found a striking increase in saving the longer the family has been exposed to the targeted retirement programs-IRAs, 401(k)s, and Keoghs (see Table 5).

The growth in IRA and 401(k) asset balances is astounding, Professor Venti noted. The typical member of the youngest family-those with nine years of exposure to targeted retirement saving programs-has nearly three times the targeted retirement assets of the oldest cohort. There is a comparable increase in total assets as well. In contrast, among families without IRAs, 401(k)s, and Keoghs, the youngest families have only about 75 percent of the financial assets of the older families ($1,691 vs. $2,247). Professor Venti concluded that since total financial assets, including balances in IRAs and 401(k)s, were much larger for the younger cohort (the families with the longest exposure to IRAs) in 1991 than for the older cohort in 1984, targeted retirement saving programs did stimulate new saving over the period.

Another reason that IRAs can be an important tool in increasing the low U.S. saving rate is that they encourage the self-control required to abstain from consumption. According to Professor Thaler, IRAs help people save by making it more difficult to "get to" the money than if it were left in an open bank savings or checking account.6Professor Thaler explains that households allocate funds, implicitly or explicitly, into categories, or "mental-accounts." Some funds-for example those in cash or a checking account-are designated for current consumption. Others-for example those in a savings account-are for "rainy days" or "special occasions." Self-control and mental-accounts come together because the latter vary in how "tempting" they are to invade. Money in a person's wallet is more tempting to spend than money in the checking account, which in turn is more tempting than the savings account. Less tempting are funds explicitly set aside for retirement, such as money in an IRA plan. Once this concept is factored in, IRAs can increase saving even if (as some critics charge) all the money put into IRAs would have been saved anyway. By putting funds into a less accessible account, the IRA increases long-term saving. (For additional background on IRAs, see Questions and Answers on IRAs, a special report prepared by the ACCF Center for Policy Research for this hearing.)

Conclusion

The pendulum may be about to swing away from the tax policies of the last decade, especially the substantial increase in the economic tax burden on saving and investment, and back toward progrowth policies. The hard fact is that we can no longer afford the luxury of tax policies that reward consumption, discourage saving and investment, overregulate American business, and penalize economic growth.

The Republican Contract's tax reform proposals for neutral capital cost recovery, capital gains tax reductions, and IRA expansion have started a dialogue that is likely to result in a substantial reduction in the bias against saving and investment in the U.S. tax code. These provisions would help move the United States toward a tax system that is more neutral toward productive capital formation and pave the way for more fundamental tax restructuring.

Notes

1. Dale Jorgenson, Productivity: Postwar U.S. Economic Growth (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1995).

2. Jorgenson's analysis uses multifactor productivity, which relates output to inputs of both labor and capital. The traditional productivity measure commonly found in popular articles is labor productivity, which relates output to labor input alone.

3. J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence Summers, "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," Quality Journal of Economics 106:445-502.

4. Edward N. Wolff, "Capital Formation and Productivity Growth in the 1970s and 1980s: A Comparative Look at OECD Countries," in Tools for American Workers: The Role of Machinery and Equipment in Economic Growth (Washington, D.C.: ACCF Center for Policy Research, March 1993) pp. 46-76.

5. B. Douglas Bernheim, Do Households Appreciate Their Financial Vulnerabilities? An Analysis of Actions, Perceptions, and Public Policy. Special Report (Washington, D.C.: American Council for Capital Formation Center for Policy Research, August 1994).

6. Richard H. Thaler, "Self-Control, Psychology and Savings Policies," Testimony presented to the Senate Finance Subcommittee on Deficits, Debt Management, and Long-Term Growth, December 7, 1994.

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